Skip to content
WhaleSays
Open Polymarket

arbdiscovery

0x1452…449c · Joined May 23, 2026

#109,685 all time#638,193 this monthView on Polymarket

arbdiscovery has made $566 in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #109,685 all time by profit, with 36K shares traded.

Latest trade seen: Aug 18, 2026.

All-time realized profit
+$566
All-time volume (shares)
36K
Portfolio value
$11K
Profit this month
−$98
Win rate (all 68 settled)
43%

How arbdiscovery has traded

Polymarket lists 68 settled positions for this wallet. Of them, 29 (43%) ended in profit and 39 in a loss, for a net +$566 in profit and loss. The simple average entry price on them was 42%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 41 of the 68 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Positions on markets that have not ended are not counted above. Of the 15 largest positions on markets that have not ended, listed below and worth $8,485 together, the biggest is “Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026?” (No) at 17% of that value.

How we count: a position is one outcome of one market. It is settled when the trader sold or redeemed it, or when its market resolved while the trader still held it; Polymarket keeps listing that last kind as open until it is redeemed, so we read those too (28 of the 68 here). Positions that cost under $1, ones that ended exactly even and ones on markets still running are left out, and each position is dated by its last activity. Profit is Polymarket's own figure per position. Computed by WhaleSays from public Polymarket data; it describes the past and is not a forecast.

Biggest wins

The largest profits across this wallet's history: positions it sold or redeemed, and ones on markets that settled in its favor and are not redeemed yet.

  • Will Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

    No · entry 25% · closed Jul 14, 2026

    +$874

  • Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

    No · entry 73% · closed Oct 27, 2026

    +$118

  • Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?

    Yes · entry 21% · closed Aug 12, 2026

    +$103

  • Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?

    Yes · entry 56% · closed Oct 5, 2026

    +$77

  • Will John Peterson be the Republican nominee for SC-06?

    Yes · entry 9% · closed Jun 10, 2026

    +$73

  • Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

    Yes · entry 61% · closed Sep 9, 2026

    +$70

  • Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

    Yes · entry 48% · closed Sep 21, 2026

    +$66

  • Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

    No · entry 29% · closed Jul 13, 2026

    +$53

  • Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting?

    No · entry 41% · closed Jul 23, 2026

    +$52

  • Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $6.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

    Yes · entry 33% · closed Oct 4, 2026

    +$47

Biggest losses

The largest losses across this wallet's history, including markets that settled against it and were never redeemed (Polymarket lists those as open, not closed).

  • Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026?

    No · entry 30% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$270

  • Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

    No · entry 16% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$122

  • Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?

    No · entry 4% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$82

  • Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06?

    Yes · entry 89% · closed Jun 18, 2026

    −$81

  • Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?

    Yes · entry 19% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$78

  • Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?

    No · entry 57% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$56

  • Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

    Yes · entry 24% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$55

  • Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21?

    Yes · entry 11% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$54

  • Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?

    No · entry 69% · closed Aug 12, 2026

    −$53

  • Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?

    Yes · entry 40% · market settled, not redeemed

    −$38

Open positions

The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.

Recent trades

  • Bought No at 79%

    Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?

    $159

  • Bought No at 78%

    Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?

    $27

  • Bought No at 78%

    Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?

    $9

  • Bought No at 78%

    Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?

    $9

  • Bought No at 56%

    Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

    $15

  • Bought No at 56%

    Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

    $4

  • Bought No at 56%

    Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

    $12

  • Bought No at 55%

    Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

    $3

  • Bought No at 56%

    Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

    $4

  • Bought No at 88%

    Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?

    $14

  • Bought No at 88%

    Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?

    $13

  • Bought No at 88%

    Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?

    $12

  • Bought No at 89%

    Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?

    $59

  • Bought No at 34%

    Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

    $2

  • Bought No at 6%

    Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

    $10

Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.

More to explore: full leaderboard, live whale trades, events with live odds and how to start.