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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Live odds

Polymarket traders put the chance of Anthropic at 95% and OpenAI at 5% for “Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first” (Anthropic −0.4 pts in the last 24 hours).

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Chance of Anthropic over the last 30 days

Price of a Anthropic share.

Sep 26Oct 25

Anthropic and OpenAI odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Anthropic is priced at 95% and OpenAI at 5%; Anthropic is down 0.4 points over the last 24 hours and up 0.3 points over the past week. Traders have put $441K through the market so far, including $3,502 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.

This market will resolve 50-50 if:

- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;

- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or

- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Polymarket currently prices Anthropic at 95% (decimal odds 1.06, American −1787) and OpenAI at 5% (decimal odds 18.87, American +1787). Each price is the market's implied probability for that outcome.
When does this market close?
The listed end date is January 1, 2028. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.

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