ArmageddonRewardsBilly
0xc8ab…6418 · Joined January 25, 2025
ArmageddonRewardsBilly has made $306K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #684 all time by profit, with 523M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 26, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$306K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 523M
- Portfolio value
- $765K
- Profit this month
- −$42K
- Win rate (last 192 closed)
- 43%
How ArmageddonRewardsBilly has traded
Across the 192 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 83 (43%) ended in profit and 109 in a loss, for −$5,186 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 58%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $510K together, the biggest is “Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?” (No) at 23% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 44% · closed Sep 17, 2026
+$719K
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 41% · closed Dec 10, 2025
+$232K
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Yes · entry 97% · closed Feb 28, 2026
+$83K
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry >99% · closed Jan 28, 2026
+$80K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 97% · closed Mar 18, 2026
+$65K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
No · entry 92% · closed Jun 4, 2026
+$60K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
No · entry 5% · closed Jul 30, 2026
+$57K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
No · entry 99% · closed Jun 2, 2026
+$47K
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
Yes · entry 84% · closed Jun 13, 2026
+$41K
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?
Yes · entry 23% · closed Mar 9, 2026
+$37K
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 33% · closed Dec 10, 2025
−$117K
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Yes · entry 33% · closed Dec 10, 2025
−$114K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Yes · entry 34% · closed May 27, 2026
−$95K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 21% · closed Jul 29, 2026
−$53K
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?
Yes · entry 63% · closed Aug 24, 2025
−$47K
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Yes · entry 95% · closed Feb 16, 2026
−$45K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
No · entry 68% · closed Jun 18, 2026
−$44K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 88% · closed Jul 30, 2026
−$44K
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks
St. Johns Red Storm · entry 95% · closed Mar 23, 2026
−$43K
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?
Yes · entry >99% · closed Jan 7, 2026
−$41K
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 50%, now 80% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$120K
+$45K P&L
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
No · entry 97%, now 97% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$88K
+$243 P&L
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 93%, now 95% · ends Oct 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$49K
+$794 P&L
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
No · entry 94%, now 95% · ends Oct 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$47K
+$250 P&L
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
No · entry 82%, now 85% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$40K
+$1,429 P&L
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 50%, now 20% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$30K
−$45K P&L
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
No · entry 83%, now 92% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$25K
+$2,287 P&L
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
Yes · entry 87%, now 70% · ends Nov 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$23K
−$5,751 P&L
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 61%, now 83% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$21K
+$5,453 P&L
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
No · entry 81%, now 88% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$20K
+$1,480 P&L
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
No · entry 91%, now 92% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$12K
+$34 P&L
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
No · entry 87%, now 69% · ends Nov 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$10K
−$2,612 P&L
Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?
Yes · entry 88%, now 89% · ends Nov 29, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,590
+$108 P&L
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes · entry 78%, now 77% · ends Dec 10, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,415
−$152 P&L
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
No · entry 88%, now 86% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,192
−$216 P&L
Recent trades
Sold Yes at 27%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Bought No at 82%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
Sold No at 77%
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
Bought No at 76%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?
Bought No at 82%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
Sold No at 89%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Sold Yes at 27%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Sold No at 95%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Sold No at 77%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
Sold No at 77%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
Sold No at 92%
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Sold No at 92%
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Sold No at 92%
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Bought No at 25%
Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026?
Sold No at 73%
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of October 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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