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Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? Live odds

The highest-priced market in “Which parties will be in next Swedish Government” is Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 71% (−0.1 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Green Party (MP) at 58%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

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Prices refresh about every 30 minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Back your pick

Choose an outcome and a stake to see what it would return if it wins.

Your pick

If “Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government” resolves Yes, $20 returns about $28.35.

Price per share
70.55¢
Implied chance
71%
Shares
28.35
Payout if it wins
$28.35
Profit if it wins
+$8.35
Odds
1.42 · −240

If it loses, the stake is lost. Each share costs the price shown and pays $1 if the outcome wins.

Back Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) on Polymarket

Affiliate link · 18+ · prices move; you can lose your stake · not financial advice

Polymarket’s taker fee is not included (see our guide to Polymarket fees). Prices are from the last update, 14:19 UTC, 2 Nov 2026, and may have moved since.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 2Nov 2
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Green Party (MP)Centre Party (C)Left Party (V)

All 9 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Long shots that pay the most

The 2 outcomes priced between 2¢ and 15¢ that would pay the most for a $20 stake. Long shots rarely win, and the price already says how rarely: 5¢ is a market-implied chance of about 5%. Most stakes at these prices end up lost.

Payout is before fees and assumes the price shown. How Polymarket fees work.

Where this market stands

“Which parties will be in next Swedish Government” is a Polymarket event with 9 open outcomes. Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) has the highest price at 71%, ahead of Green Party (MP) at 58%. Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is down 0.1 points over the last 24 hours and down 2.8 points over the past week. Traders have put $292K through the event so far, including $2,059 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on September 14, 2026.

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The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 71% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.42 (American −240): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.42 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 0.1 points.

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