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Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026? Live odds

The highest-priced market in “Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026” is Somalia at 37% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of South Sudan at 35%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
SomaliaSouth SudanEthiopiaRwanda

All 10 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026” is a Polymarket event with 10 open outcomes. Somalia has the highest price at 37%, ahead of South Sudan at 35%. Somalia is unchanged over the last 24 hours and down 2.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $75K through the event so far, including $219 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

Will Somalia have an Ebola case in 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 37% in this market, which is decimal odds of 2.70 (American +170): $1 staked on Yes returns about $2.70 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.

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