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Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections odds

Polymarket traders make Below 190 the favorite for “Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections” at 40% (+1.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 190-194 at 17%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Oct 1Nov 1
Below 190190-194195-199200-204

All 10 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections” is a Polymarket event with 10 open outcomes. Below 190 leads at 40%, ahead of 190-194 at 17%. Below 190 is up 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 4.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $535K through the event so far, including $109K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 is the favorite at 40%, followed by 190-194 at 17% and 195-199 at 14%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket traders give Below 190 a 40% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.53 (American +153): $1 staked on Below 190 returns about $2.53 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 1.0 points.

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