lava-lava has made $993K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #183 all time by profit, with 43M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$993K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 43M
- Portfolio value
- $572K
- Profit this month
- +$53K
- Win rate (last 192 closed)
- 19%
How lava-lava has traded
Across the 192 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 36 (19%) ended in profit and 156 in a loss, for −$102K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 33%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 127 of the 192 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $528K together, the biggest is “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” (Yes) at 48% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Yes · entry 57% · closed Jun 2, 2025
+$119K
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Yes · entry 6% · closed Jul 6, 2026
+$115K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Yes · entry 0.2% · closed May 11, 2026
+$104K
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
No · entry 61% · closed Jun 2, 2025
+$95K
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%?
Yes · entry 71% · closed May 21, 2025
+$74K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
No · entry 0.6% · closed May 11, 2026
+$67K
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 24% · closed Nov 6, 2024
+$63K
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
No · entry 8% · closed Jul 6, 2026
+$62K
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
No · entry 57% · closed Nov 3, 2025
+$50K
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 61% · closed Nov 5, 2024
+$40K
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
No · entry 52% · closed Mar 18, 2026
−$110K
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Yes · entry 48% · closed Mar 18, 2026
−$83K
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
No · entry 76% · closed May 11, 2026
−$58K
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
No · entry 86% · closed Jul 6, 2026
−$58K
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
No · entry 40% · closed Nov 6, 2024
−$45K
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Yes · entry 93% · closed Jul 6, 2026
−$41K
Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?
No · entry 56% · closed Sep 16, 2025
−$36K
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%
Yes · entry 61% · closed Jan 28, 2024
−$33K
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
No · entry 80% · closed Feb 10, 2026
−$28K
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
No · entry 97% · closed Oct 13, 2026
−$28K
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes · entry 64%, now 94% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$252K
+$81K P&L
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
No · entry 64%, now 94% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$189K
+$60K P&L
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Yes · entry 29%, now 97% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$47K
+$33K P&L
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?
Yes · entry 59%, now 96% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,758
+$2,960 P&L
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
No · entry 32%, now 98% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,724
+$3,164 P&L
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
No · entry 93%, now 96% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,581
+$157 P&L
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Yes · entry 89%, now 96% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,402
+$310 P&L
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Yes · entry 50%, now 57% · ends Jan 5, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,350
+$429 P&L
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
No · entry 60%, now 67% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,969
+$314 P&L
Will Tomáš Vohryzka be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem?
Yes · entry 87%, now 98% · ends Jun 30, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,509
+$285 P&L
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
No · entry 47%, now >99% · ends Oct 25, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,213
+$1,169 P&L
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Yes · entry 25%, now 26% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,991
+$39 P&L
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Yes · entry 34%, now 76% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,940
+$1,069 P&L
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Yes · entry 51%, now 83% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,748
+$667 P&L
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes · entry 19%, now 16% · ends Apr 19, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,550
−$350 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 91%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought No at 91%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought No at 91%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought No at 91%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought No at 91%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 55%
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?
Bought Yes at 58%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 58%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 58%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 58%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 58%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 58%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
Bought Yes at 67%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?
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