Measles cases in U.S. by October 31 odds
The highest-priced market in “Measles cases in U.S. by October 31” is 4700+ at 93% (−3.8 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 4800+ at 55%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 3 outcomes right now.
All 3 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 4700+93%93%24h −3.8 ptsOdds 1.07US −1404Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 4800+55%55%24h +0.7 ptsOdds 1.82US −121Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 4900+10%10%24h +2.0 ptsOdds 10.53US +953Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Measles cases in U.S. by October 31” is a Polymarket event with 3 open outcomes. 4700+ has the highest price at 93%, ahead of 4800+ at 55%. 4700+ is down 3.8 points over the last 24 hours and down 3.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $33K through the event so far, including $463 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 1, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
0x6fa7…907e bought Yes at >99%
Will there be at least 4300 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
fElon bought Yes at 93%
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 93% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.07 (American −1404): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.07 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 3.8 points.
