Screwworm National Emergency declared by odds
The highest-priced market in “Screwworm National Emergency declared by” is December 31 at 38% (−1.0 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of October 31 at 5%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 2 outcomes right now.
All 2 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 38%
December 3138%24h −1.0 ptsOdds 2.67US +167Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 5%
October 315%24h −2.8 ptsOdds 20.83US +1983Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Screwworm National Emergency declared by” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. December 31 has the highest price at 38%, ahead of October 31 at 5%. December 31 is down 1.0 points over the last 24 hours and up 23 points over the past week. Traders have put $12K through the event so far, including $512 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Screwworm National Emergency declared by December 31?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 38% in this market, which is decimal odds of 2.67 (American +167): $1 staked on Yes returns about $2.67 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 1.0 points.
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