US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026 odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 16% and No at 85% for “US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026” (Yes +2.0 pts in the last 24 hours).
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Chance of Yes over the last 30 days
Price of a Yes share.
Yes and No odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Yes16%16%24h +2.0 ptsOdds 6.45US +545Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- No85%85%24h −2.0 ptsOdds 1.18US −545Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 16% and No at 85%; Yes is up 2.0 points over the last 24 hours and down 4.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $109K through the market so far, including $11K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
vinii bought No at 81%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii sold No at 85%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii bought No at 81%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii sold No at 84%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii bought No at 81%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii bought No at 82%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
hfv sold No at 82%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii bought No at 81%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii bought No at 82%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii bought No at 84%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
vinii bought No at 80%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
Wickier bought No at 76%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
Wickier bought No at 77%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
How this market resolves
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that directly has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major Chinese AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a removal of general public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major Chinese AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: DeepSeek, Baidu (ERNIE), Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, MiniMax, Tencent (Hunyuan) and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major Chinese AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major Chinese model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 16% (decimal odds 6.45, American +545) and No at 85% (decimal odds 1.18, American −545). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
