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Best Chinese AI Company end of October odds

Polymarket traders make Xiaomi the favorite for “Best Chinese AI Company end of October” at 66% (+6.2 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Moonshot at 24%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
XiaomiMoonshotAlibabaZ.ai

All 11 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Best Chinese AI Company end of October” is a Polymarket event with 11 open outcomes. Xiaomi leads at 66%, ahead of Moonshot at 24%. Xiaomi is up 6.2 points over the last 24 hours and up 12 points over the past week. Traders have put $332K through the event so far, including $8,726 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on October 31, 2026.

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Xiaomi is the favorite at 66%, followed by Moonshot at 24% and Alibaba at 7%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Polymarket traders give Xiaomi a 66% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.51 (American −197): $1 staked on Xiaomi returns about $1.51 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 6.2 points.

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