OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap odds
Polymarket traders make 1.5T+ the favorite for “OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap” at 38% (+0.1 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 37%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 7 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 38%
1.5T+38%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 2.65US +165Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 37%No IPO by December 31, 202737%24h +8.4 ptsOdds 2.72US +172Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 12%1.25T–1.5T12%24h +0.5 ptsOdds 8.33US +733Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 6%1T–1.25T6%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 15.75US +1475Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 3%750B–1T3%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 33.90US +3290Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2%500–750B2%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 44.44US +4344Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 2%<500B2%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 45.45US +4445Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap” is a Polymarket event with 7 open outcomes. 1.5T+ leads at 38%, ahead of No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 37%. 1.5T+ is up 0.1 points over the last 24 hours and down 7.3 points over the past week. Traders have put $570K through the event so far, including $2,663 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2028.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
Albert 1953 bought No at 58%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
chivoexpiatorio sold No at 45%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
chivoexpiatorio bought No at 46%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
DancewithRisk bought Yes at 53%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
DancewithRisk bought Yes at 56%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
DancewithRisk sold Yes at 61%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
PackersPete bought Yes at 62%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
DancewithRisk bought Yes at 68%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Jellow2 sold Yes at 76%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Jellow2 bought Yes at 68%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Bigggggggg bought No at 92%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Bigggggggg bought No at 88%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
zoootic bought Yes at 43%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Bigggggggg bought No at 81%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Bigggggggg bought No at >99%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap?
- 1.5T+ is the favorite at 38%, followed by No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 37% and 1.25T–1.5T at 12%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
- Polymarket traders give 1.5T+ a 38% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.65 (American +165): $1 staked on 1.5T+ returns about $2.65 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.1 points.
