Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026 odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 6% and No at 95% for “Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026” (Yes unchanged in the last 24 hours).
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Chance of Yes over the last 30 days
Price of a Yes share.
Yes and No odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Yes6%6%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 18.18US +1718Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- No95%95%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.06US −1718Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 6% and No at 95%; Yes is unchanged over the last 24 hours and unchanged over the past week. Traders have put $877 through the market so far, including $0 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 6% (decimal odds 18.18, American +1718) and No at 95% (decimal odds 1.06, American −1718). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
