TX-23 House Election Winner odds
Polymarket traders make Brandon Herrera (R) the favorite for “TX-23 House Election Winner” at 58% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of Katy Padilla Stout (D) at 43%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 2 outcomes right now.
All 2 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Brandon Herrera (R)58%58%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.72US −138Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- Katy Padilla Stout (D)43%43%24h +1.5 ptsOdds 2.35US +135Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“TX-23 House Election Winner” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. Brandon Herrera (R) leads at 58%, ahead of Katy Padilla Stout (D) at 43%. Brandon Herrera (R) is unchanged over the last 24 hours and down 13 points over the past week. Traders have put $127K through the event so far, including $5,209 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on November 4, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
mynameispaul bought Yes at 70%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Gaditima bought Yes at 68%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
purplegatto bought Yes at 61%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Chungvicular bought Yes at 37%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in TX-23 House Election Winner?
- Brandon Herrera (R) is the favorite at 58%, followed by Katy Padilla Stout (D) at 43%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
- Polymarket traders give Brandon Herrera (R) a 58% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.72 (American −138): $1 staked on Brandon Herrera (R) returns about $1.72 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.
