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Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 odds

Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 14% and No at 87% for “Supreme Court vacancy in 2026” (Yes unchanged in the last 24 hours).

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Chance of Yes over the last 30 days

Price of a Yes share.

Sep 26Oct 26

Yes and No odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Supreme Court vacancy in 2026” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 14% and No at 87%; Yes is unchanged over the last 24 hours and up 2.0 points over the past week. Traders have put $27K through the market so far, including $6 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 2, 2027.

Whale trades in this market

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 14% (decimal odds 7.41, American +641) and No at 87% (decimal odds 1.16, American −641). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
When does this market close?
The listed end date is January 2, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.

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