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How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary? Live odds

Polymarket traders make 4-6 the favorite for “How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary” at 93% (+0.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 7-9 at 3%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 2 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 26
4-67-9

All 2 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary” is a Polymarket event with 2 open outcomes. 4-6 leads at 93%, ahead of 7-9 at 3%. 4-6 is up 0.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 1.9 points over the past week. Traders have put $115K through the event so far, including $3,447 in the last 24 hours.

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How this market resolves

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
4-6 is the favorite at 93%, followed by 7-9 at 3%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Polymarket traders give 4-6 a 93% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.07 (American −1360): $1 staked on 4-6 returns about $1.07 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 0.5 points.

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