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F1 drivers' championship odds 2026

Polymarket traders give Kimi Antonelli a >99% chance of winning the 2026 F1 drivers' championship (+1.3 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Max Verstappen at 0.5%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
Kimi AntonelliMax VerstappenLewis HamiltonLando Norris

All 6 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season.

This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.

If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

What this market asks

Which driver will finish first in the 2026 Formula 1 drivers' standings? Every driver has a Yes/No market, and the price is the market's implied chance that they take the title. The rules of the sport changed significantly for 2026, with new power units and chassis regulations, so form from earlier seasons is a weaker guide than usual.

How it resolves and key dates

A driver's market resolves to Yes if they finish first in the 2026 drivers' standings. Polymarket resolves it as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the season are known. A tie on points is settled by Formula 1's own tiebreak rules, which count wins first, then second places and so on. If it becomes mathematically impossible for a driver to win, their market resolves to No. If the season is cancelled or not completed by February 28, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), the market resolves to Other. The official source is Formula 1.

Points go to the top ten finishers in each grand prix, with 25 for a win, and to the top eight in sprint races. The champion is the driver with the most points after the last race.

What moves these odds

Race results and the points gap are the main driver. After each grand prix the leader's price usually moves in line with the gap to the next driver and the number of races left. Car performance is the second factor: upgrades, reliability and the strengths of each circuit all decide how long a lead lasts.

Penalties, retirements, crashes and team orders can swing a title fight in a single weekend, and the price moves with them. Late in the season, odds converge on one or two drivers and long shots fall to zero as they are eliminated mathematically.

Common questions

New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.

How does Polymarket decide the F1 drivers' champion market?
It resolves to the driver who finishes first in the official 2026 drivers' standings, as soon as the official results of the last scheduled race are known. Ties are settled using Formula 1's tiebreak procedure.
How are F1 points awarded?
The top ten finishers in a grand prix score points, with 25 for a win. Sprint races award points to the top eight. The driver with the most points at the end of the season is champion.
What happens if a driver can no longer win the title?
Their market resolves to No once it is mathematically impossible for them to finish first under Formula 1's rules.
What if the 2026 season is cancelled?
If the season is permanently cancelled, or not completed by February 28, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), the market resolves to Other.
Who is the favorite in F1 Drivers' Champion?
Kimi Antonelli is the favorite at >99%, followed by Max Verstappen at 0.5% and Lewis Hamilton at 0.1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Polymarket traders give Kimi Antonelli a >99% chance of winning the 2026 F1 drivers' championship, which is decimal odds of 1.01 (American −18082): $1 staked on Kimi Antonelli returns about $1.01 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 1.3 points.

Related odds

Also see Super Bowl odds and Ballon d'Or 2026 odds.

United States Grand Prix: Driver Winner

  • Kimi Antonelli78%
  • Max Verstappen18%
  • Charles Leclerc5%

$537K traded · $488K in 24h

F1 Constructors' Champion

  • Mercedes98%
  • Ferrari1%
  • McLaren0.1%

$29M traded · $18K in 24h

United States Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish

  • Kimi Antonelli92%
  • Max Verstappen89%
  • Charles Leclerc73%

$25K traded · $18K in 24h