Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? Live odds
Polymarket traders put the chance of Yes at 6% and No at 94% for “Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026” (Yes −7.5 pts in the last 24 hours).
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Chance of Yes over the last 30 days
Price of a Yes share.
Yes and No odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- Yes6%6%24h −7.5 ptsOdds 16.67US +1567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- No94%94%24h +7.5 ptsOdds 1.06US −1567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026” is a Polymarket market with two outcomes. Yes is priced at 6% and No at 94%; Yes is down 7.5 points over the last 24 hours and down 7.5 points over the past week. Traders have put $66K through the market so far, including $469 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
toast..... bought No at 84%
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 6% (decimal odds 16.67, American +1567) and No at 94% (decimal odds 1.06, American −1567). The price of a Yes share is the market's implied probability that this happens.
- When does this market close?
- The listed end date is January 1, 2027. Read the resolution rules on this page to see what counts and who decides.
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