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Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share odds

Polymarket traders make 35-40% the favorite for “Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share” at 50% (+37 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 40-45% at 44%.

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Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.

Probability over the last 30 days

The top 4 outcomes right now.

Sep 26Oct 25
35-40%40-45%50-55%45-50%

All 6 outcomes and their odds

Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.

Odds as of

Where this market stands

“Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share” is a Polymarket event with 6 open outcomes. 35-40% leads at 50%, ahead of 40-45% at 44%. 35-40% is up 37 points over the last 24 hours and up 27 points over the past week. Traders have put $75K through the event so far, including $17K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on October 25, 2026.

Whale trades in this market

The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.

Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).

Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.

Common questions

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Who is the favorite in Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?
35-40% is the favorite at 50%, followed by 40-45% at 44% and 50-55% at 12%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Polymarket traders give 35-40% a 50% chance, which is decimal odds of 2.00 (American +100): $1 staked on 35-40% returns about $2.00 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 37 points.

Related odds

Serbia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

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Serbia Election: Student List Vote Share?

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Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

  • Student List – Students Win99%
  • Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia0.4%
  • Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!<0.1%

$11M traded · $3.7M in 24h