Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place odds
Polymarket traders make Kylian Mbappé the favorite for “Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place” at 66% (−3.5 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of Lamine Yamal at 16%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 30 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 66%
Kylian Mbappé66%24h −3.5 ptsOdds 1.53US −190Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 16%
Lamine Yamal16%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 6.25US +525Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 14%
Harry Kane14%24h −2.5 ptsOdds 7.41US +641Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 3%
Ousmane Dembélé3%24h +2.6 ptsOdds 37.04US +3604Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 0.9%
Lionel Messi0.9%24h +0.3 ptsOdds 117.65US +11665Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 0.8%
Rodri0.8%24h +0.6 ptsOdds 133.33US +13233Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 0.3%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia0.3%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 400.00US +39900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 0.1%
Michael Olise0.1%24h +0.1 ptsOdds 666.67US +66567Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Fabian Ruiz<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Pau Cubarsi<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Erling Haaland<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Jude Bellingham<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Vinícius Júnior<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Declan Rice<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Vitinha<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Show all 30 outcomesShow fewer outcomes
- <0.1%
Achraf Hakimi<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Bruno Fernandes<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Luis Diaz<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Lautaro Martinez<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Marc Cucurella<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Gabriel Magalhães<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Sadio Mané<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Marquinhos<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Nuno Mendes<0.1%24h −0.2 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
João Neves<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Willian Pacho<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Julián Quiñones<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
William Saliba<0.1%24h −0.4 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Ferran Torres<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - <0.1%
Dayot Upamecano<0.1%24h −0.4 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place” is a Polymarket event with 30 open outcomes. Kylian Mbappé leads at 66%, ahead of Lamine Yamal at 16%. Kylian Mbappé is down 3.5 points over the last 24 hours and unchanged over the past week. Traders have put $348K through the event so far, including $51K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on January 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
denver28 bought Yes at 69%
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
denver28 bought Yes at 66%
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
enginesinmyfactory sold Yes at 64%
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
OuldLm3alem bought Yes at 75%
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
melchior1248 bought No at 87%
Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Aggravating-Lettuce-Local bought Yes at 66%
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
niceqqqqq3 bought No at 85%
Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 2nd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking.
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If two or more players are tied for 2nd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Who is the favorite in Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place?
- Kylian Mbappé is the favorite at 66%, followed by Lamine Yamal at 16% and Harry Kane at 14%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- Polymarket traders give Kylian Mbappé a 66% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.53 (American −190): $1 staked on Kylian Mbappé returns about $1.53 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved down 3.5 points.
