Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25 odds
Polymarket traders make 30°C the favorite for “Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25” at >99% (+47 pts in the last 24 hours), ahead of 29°C at 0.1%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 11 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- >99%
30°C>99%24h +47 ptsOdds 1.00US −22122Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 0.1%29°C0.1%24h −18 ptsOdds 1000.00US +99900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%26°C or below<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%27°C<0.1%24h −0.6 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%28°C<0.1%24h −0.9 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%31°C<0.1%24h −29 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%32°C<0.1%24h −1.7 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%33°C<0.1%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%34°C<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%35°C<0.1%24h −0.1 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- <0.1%36°C or higher<0.1%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 2000.00US +199900Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25” is a Polymarket event with 11 open outcomes. 30°C leads at >99%, ahead of 29°C at 0.1%. 30°C is up 47 points over the last 24 hours and unchanged over the past week. Traders have put $62K through the event so far, including $48K in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on October 25, 2026.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
6862584 sold No at >99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on October 25?
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Oct '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
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- Who is the favorite in Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 25?
- 30°C is the favorite at >99%, followed by 29°C at 0.1% and 26°C or below at <0.1%. Prices are the market's implied probabilities and update as traders buy and sell.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 25?
- Polymarket traders give 30°C a >99% chance, which is decimal odds of 1.00 (American −22122): $1 staked on 30°C returns about $1.00 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved up 47 points.
