GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut odds
The highest-priced market in “GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut” is 1430+ at 80% (unchanged in the last 24 hours), ahead of 1440+ at 52%. Each market resolves on its own, so these prices do not have to add up to 100%.
Prices refresh every few minutes. Probabilities are not predictions or advice, and you can lose what you trade.
Probability over the last 30 days
The top 4 outcomes right now.
All 5 outcomes and their odds
Probability is the share price. Decimal odds show what $1 returns if that outcome wins, before fees. American odds show the same price as a moneyline: +150 pays $150 on a $100 stake, −200 needs $200 to win $100.
Odds as of
- 80%
1430+80%24h 0.0 ptsOdds 1.26US −388Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link) - 52%1440+52%24h +2.5 ptsOdds 1.92US −108Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 44%1450+44%24h +4.5 ptsOdds 2.30US +130Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 26%1460+26%24h −3.0 ptsOdds 3.85US +285Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
- 18%1470+18%24h −1.5 ptsOdds 5.56US +456Trade on Polymarket (affiliate link)
Where this market stands
“GPT Astra 6.1+: Text Arena Debut” is a Polymarket event with 5 open outcomes. 1430+ has the highest price at 80%, ahead of 1440+ at 52%. 1430+ is unchanged over the last 24 hours and unchanged over the past week. Traders have put $29K through the event so far, including $7,237 in the last 24 hours, and it is scheduled to end on July 1, 2027.
Whale trades in this market
The latest trades of $1,000 or more on this event, newest first.
No trades of $1,000 or more on this market recently.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Astra model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules are written by Polymarket and shown as published. WhaleSays does not settle markets.
Common questions
New to this? Our guide covers how to make your first trade.
- Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?
- Polymarket currently prices Yes at 80% in this market, which is decimal odds of 1.26 (American −388): $1 staked on Yes returns about $1.26 if it resolves Yes, before fees. In the last 24 hours the price moved by less than 0.1 points.
