Accomplished-Refrigerator
0xe38e…50c8 · Joined November 10, 2025
Accomplished-Refrigerator is down $19K in realized results on Polymarket, with 851K shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- −$19K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 851K
- Portfolio value
- $27K
- Profit this month
- −$12K
- Win rate (last 194 closed)
- 36%
How Accomplished-Refrigerator has traded
Across the 194 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 69 (36%) ended in profit and 125 in a loss, for −$15K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 45%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $27K together, the biggest is “Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?” (No) at 49% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes · entry 82% · closed May 31, 2026
+$2,234
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Yes · entry 65% · closed Jul 1, 2026
+$1,823
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes · entry 69% · closed Jun 30, 2026
+$1,788
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Yes · entry 73% · closed Apr 30, 2026
+$1,450
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score
Yes · entry 40% · closed Jun 24, 2026
+$1,262
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
No · entry 39% · closed Jun 1, 2026
+$1,097
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?
Yes · entry 52% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$997
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 70% · closed Sep 26, 2026
+$986
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes · entry 87% · closed Aug 1, 2026
+$813
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 75% · closed Jun 15, 2026
+$801
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
No · entry 0.1% · closed Apr 12, 2026
−$4,759
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes · entry 38% · closed Oct 13, 2026
−$2,765
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 77% · closed Oct 3, 2026
−$2,645
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 4% · closed Jun 21, 2026
−$2,085
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 1% · closed Jun 4, 2026
−$1,774
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score
No · entry 87% · closed Jul 5, 2026
−$1,733
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes · entry 73% · closed Oct 2, 2026
−$1,518
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?
Yes · entry 66% · closed Sep 30, 2026
−$1,261
Argentina to win the second half?
Yes · entry 54% · closed Jul 4, 2026
−$1,225
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Yes · entry 62% · closed Jul 14, 2026
−$1,130
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
No · entry 71%, now 73% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$13K
+$310 P&L
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Yes · entry 59%, now 54% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$8,862
−$958 P&L
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Yes · entry 14%, now 14% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$824
+$27 P&L
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 85%, now 82% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$820
−$30 P&L
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?
Yes · entry 85%, now 79% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$628
−$45 P&L
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Yes · entry 57%, now 67% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$591
+$91 P&L
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Yes · entry 39%, now 45% · ends Dec 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$450
+$60 P&L
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?
Yes · entry 91%, now 93% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$398
+$6 P&L
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?
Yes · entry 59%, now 56% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$282
−$12 P&L
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
Yes · entry 42%, now 42% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$211
−$2 P&L
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 14%, now 11% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$188
−$61 P&L
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
Yes · entry 7%, now 7% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$120
+$0 P&L
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
No · entry 50%, now 60% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$120
+$20 P&L
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
No · entry 41%, now 46% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$111
+$12 P&L
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 30%, now 46% · ends Oct 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$91
+$32 P&L
Recent trades
Sold Yes at 32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Sold Yes at 32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Sold Yes at 32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Sold Yes at 32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Sold Yes at 32%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 22%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 22%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 22%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 22%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Bought Yes at 1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Bought Yes at 1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Bought Yes at 1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Bought Yes at 1%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Sold Yes at 37%
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Bought Yes at 30%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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