
Hollow-Bed has made $28K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #5,961 all time by profit, with 2.7M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 17, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$28K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 2.7M
- Portfolio value
- $1,352
- Profit this month
- +$905
- Win rate (last 197 closed)
- 57%
How Hollow-Bed has traded
Across the 197 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 113 (57%) ended in profit and 84 in a loss, for +$17K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 59%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 2 largest open positions listed below, worth $1,352 together, the biggest is “Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?” (Yes) at 91% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Yes · entry 58% · closed Dec 21, 2024
+$3,716

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 68% · closed Feb 28, 2026
+$2,606

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 43% · closed Oct 17, 2026
+$2,467

Israel military action against Iraq before November?
Yes · entry 85% · closed Oct 30, 2024
+$2,382

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes · entry 67% · closed Jun 18, 2026
+$1,710

Hamas lose power in Gaza before February?
Yes · entry 25% · closed Feb 2, 2024
+$1,678

Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Yes · entry 28% · closed Jul 16, 2024
+$1,664

Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?
No · entry 85% · closed Jul 5, 2025
+$1,579

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Yes · entry 78% · closed Mar 4, 2026
+$1,556

Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?
Yes · entry 47% · closed Sep 10, 2024
+$1,403
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.

Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
Yes · entry 32% · closed Sep 29, 2025
−$2,958

MrBeast fires Kris in July?
No · entry 82% · closed Jul 23, 2024
−$2,378

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?
Yes · entry 48% · closed Sep 21, 2026
−$1,965

Israel military action against Iran by Friday?
No · entry 84% · closed Jun 14, 2025
−$1,684

US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?
No · entry 83% · closed Feb 17, 2024
−$1,364

Will Nikki Haley endorse Trump before June?
Yes · entry 68% · closed May 29, 2024
−$1,346

Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?
No · entry 56% · closed Mar 18, 2026
−$1,241

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 41% · closed Jun 1, 2026
−$1,219

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
No · entry 57% · closed Dec 21, 2024
−$1,214

Will Walz say "Coach" at DNC speech?
Yes · entry 65% · closed Aug 22, 2024
−$1,143
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?
Yes · entry 70%, now 36% · ends Jan 1, 2029
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,232
−$1,198 P&L

Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
No · entry 59%, now 53% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$120
−$15 P&L
Recent trades

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 75%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 72%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 72%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 72%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 72%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 72%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 72%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Sold No at 72%
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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