ratehikes has made $197K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #1,061 all time by profit, with 4.8M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$197K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 4.8M
- Portfolio value
- $47K
- Profit this month
- −$110K
- Win rate (last 36 closed)
- 53%
How ratehikes has traded
Across all 36 closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 19 (53%) ended in profit and 17 in a loss, for +$292K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 41%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 20 of the 36 are about economy and the Fed, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 9 largest open positions listed below, worth $47K together, the biggest is “Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?” (Yes) at 81% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 18% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$469K
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes · entry 47% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$110K
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 40.5
Over · entry 58% · closed Sep 25, 2026
+$17K
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
Yes · entry 55% · closed Sep 16, 2026
+$7,563
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 48.5
Over · entry 47% · closed Oct 6, 2026
+$3,445
Spread: Eagles (-2.5)
Rams · entry 69% · closed Oct 4, 2026
+$2,170
Titans vs. Ravens
Ravens · entry 86% · closed Oct 4, 2026
+$1,960
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 55.5
Over · entry 39% · closed Oct 5, 2026
+$1,937
Broncos vs. 49ers: O/U 46.5
Under · entry 43% · closed Oct 4, 2026
+$1,539
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 46.5
Over · entry 54% · closed Oct 6, 2026
+$1,532
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 20% · closed Sep 23, 2026
−$120K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 16% · closed Sep 16, 2026
−$51K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 16% · closed Sep 16, 2026
−$50K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 16% · closed Sep 16, 2026
−$49K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 4% · closed Oct 5, 2026
−$16K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 4% · closed Oct 5, 2026
−$15K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 4% · closed Oct 5, 2026
−$15K
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
Yes · entry 11% · closed Sep 23, 2026
−$2,685
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 2% · closed Jul 29, 2026
−$2,463
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes · entry 2% · closed Jul 29, 2026
−$2,410
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes · entry 61%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$38K
+$14K P&L
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Yes · entry 24%, now 73% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,522
+$1,704 P&L
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
No · entry 97%, now 97% · ends Dec 9, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,983
+$9 P&L
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Yes · entry 11%, now 70% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,934
+$1,636 P&L
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
No · entry 56%, now 96% · ends Dec 31, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,188
+$494 P&L
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Yes · entry 18%, now 17% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$797
−$66 P&L
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Yes · entry 16%, now 9% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$467
−$411 P&L
Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 54.5
Over · entry 19%, now 21% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
No · entry 67%, now 97% · ends Jan 29, 2027
Recent trades
Bought Over at 19%
Chiefs vs. Seahawks: O/U 54.5
Bought at 52%
Raptors vs. Timberwolves AND Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 19.5
$5
Bought at 37%
Spread: Raptors (-8.5) AND Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5
$39
Bought at 51%
Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 229.5 AND Lakers vs. Jazz
$101
Bought at 55%
Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 19.5 AND Lakers vs. Jazz
$3
Bought at 53%
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) AND Lakers vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5
$84
Bought at 94%
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Anytime Touchdown AND Christian Watson: Anytime Touchdown AND Savion Williams: Anytime Touchdown
$69
Bought at 39%
Spread: Jazz (-9.5) AND Spread: Clippers (-3.5) AND Spread: Nets (-10.5) AND Spread: Pistons (-16.5) AND Spread: Magic (-8.5)
$3
Bought at 57%
Giants vs. Texans AND Colts vs. Vikings AND Chuba Hubbard: Rushing Yards O/U 49.5
$6
Bought at 74%
Buccaneers vs. Panthers AND Colts vs. Vikings AND 49ers vs. Falcons
$49
Bought at 86%
Bijan Robinson: Anytime Touchdown AND Javonte Williams: Anytime Touchdown AND Kenneth Walker: Anytime Touchdown AND Derrick Henry: Anytime Touchdown
$28
Bought at 84%
Matthew Golden: Anytime Touchdown AND J.K. Dobbins: Anytime Touchdown
$1
Bought at 71%
49ers vs. Falcons: O/U 38.5 AND Bengals vs. Ravens AND 49ers vs. Falcons
$21
Bought at 87%
George Kittle: Anytime Touchdown AND T.J. Hockenson: Anytime Touchdown
$32
Bought at 97%
Mark Andrews: Anytime Touchdown AND Cade Otton: Anytime Touchdown AND Harold Fannin Jr.: Anytime Touchdown
$130
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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