NERA is down $49K in realized results on Polymarket, with 4.1M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 27, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- −$49K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 4.1M
- Portfolio value
- $4,933
- Profit this month
- +$1,335
- Win rate (last 197 closed)
- 46%
How NERA has traded
Across the 197 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 91 (46%) ended in profit and 106 in a loss, for −$21K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 31%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 11 largest open positions listed below, worth $4,933 together, the biggest is “Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?” (No) at 40% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Yes · entry 39% · closed Dec 5, 2024
+$4,094
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
No · entry 87% · closed Jan 1, 2025
+$3,267
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?
Yes · entry 6% · closed Jan 26, 2026
+$2,422
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?
Yes · entry 27% · closed Dec 4, 2025
+$2,185
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?
No · entry 80% · closed Dec 1, 2024
+$1,877
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in November?
Yes · entry 93% · closed Nov 9, 2024
+$1,749
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?
Yes · entry 41% · closed Feb 3, 2025
+$1,606
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November?
Yes · entry 86% · closed Nov 11, 2024
+$1,293
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
No · entry 0.9% · closed Oct 30, 2024
+$1,273
Ethereum above $3,300 on November 29?
Yes · entry 57% · closed Nov 29, 2024
+$1,096
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
Yes · entry 54% · closed Dec 4, 2025
−$9,020
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?
No · entry 85% · closed Jun 25, 2025
−$8,231
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Yes · entry 5% · closed Dec 4, 2025
−$7,870
Broncos vs. Eagles
Eagles · entry 85% · closed May 1, 2026
−$7,265
Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?
No · entry 91% · closed Nov 6, 2024
−$4,836
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #2 searched person on Google this year?
Yes · entry 18% · closed Dec 4, 2025
−$4,626
Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?
No · entry 91% · closed Nov 6, 2024
−$3,328
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?
Yes · entry 12% · closed Jan 18, 2026
−$2,973
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?
Yes · entry 0.6% · closed May 1, 2026
−$2,958
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31?
Yes · entry 54% · closed May 1, 2026
−$2,700
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
No · entry 75%, now 88% · ended Nov 24, 2025
$1,980
+$310 P&L
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 16%, now 39% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,491
+$871 P&L
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 29%, now 16% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$519
−$452 P&L
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 36%, now 35% · ends Dec 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$472
−$17 P&L
Will PSOE win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?
No · entry 80%, now 96% · ends Nov 30, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$167
+$28 P&L
Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
No · entry 64%, now 83% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$129
+$29 P&L
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
Yes · entry 22%, now 26% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$116
+$16 P&L
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
No · entry 73%, now 83% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
Yes · entry 4%, now 3% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?
Yes · entry 58%, now 60% · ends Feb 1, 2027
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Yes · entry 1%, now 5% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Recent trades
Sold No at 96%
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
Sold Yes at 46%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 22%
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
Bought Yes at 22%
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?
Bought Yes at 4%
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
Sold Yes at 23%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 58%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 31, 2027?
Bought Yes at 36%
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
Sold No at 83%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Bought Yes at 33%
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
Bought Yes at 33%
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
Bought Yes at 33%
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
Bought Yes at 33%
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?
Bought No at 80%
Will PSOE win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Bought Yes at 1%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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