pagliacci4 is down $18K in realized results on Polymarket, with 3.1M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- −$18K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 3.1M
- Portfolio value
- $44K
- Profit this month
- −$1,012
- Win rate (last 198 closed)
- 92%
How pagliacci4 has traded
Across the 198 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 183 (92%) ended in profit and 15 in a loss, for +$11K in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 91%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 138 of the 198 are about sports, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $40K together, the biggest is “Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?” (No) at 18% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.

South Africa and Zimbabwe Tour of Namibia T20s: Namibia vs South Africa
Namibia · entry 77% · closed Aug 28, 2026
+$1,040

Washington vs. Purdue
Washington · entry 85% · closed Oct 17, 2026
+$954

Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
No · entry 93% · closed Sep 25, 2026
+$926

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays · entry 83% · closed Oct 18, 2026
+$917

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?
No · entry 89% · closed Sep 26, 2026
+$882

Packers vs. Buccaneers
Packers · entry 72% · closed Oct 4, 2026
+$833

West Indies Tour of India ODIs: India vs West Indies
West Indies · entry 61% · closed Oct 3, 2026
+$780

Alabama vs. Tennessee
Tennessee · entry 90% · closed Oct 17, 2026
+$770

Afghanistan Tour of Ireland ODIs: Ireland vs Afghanistan
Afghanistan · entry 69% · closed Aug 15, 2026
+$763

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?
Yes · entry 70% · closed Aug 3, 2026
+$713
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.

Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch?
Yes · entry 96% · closed Oct 20, 2026
−$6,907

Genoa: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Francesco Ferrari
Thiago Seyboth Wild · entry 77% · closed Sep 12, 2026
−$3,450

Cardinals vs. Rams
Rams · entry 81% · closed Oct 18, 2026
−$2,391

Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland
Namibia · entry 78% · closed Oct 22, 2026
−$2,271

Jingshan: Aliona Falei vs Kristiana Sidorova
Kristiana Sidorova · entry 97% · closed Oct 1, 2026
−$2,123

KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles
Kia Tigers · entry 76% · closed Aug 20, 2026
−$1,934

Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-08-15?
No · entry >99% · closed Aug 15, 2026
−$1,897

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers · entry 87% · closed Oct 15, 2026
−$1,662

Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-08-16?
Yes · entry 89% · closed Aug 16, 2026
−$1,644

Will FK Buxoro win on 2026-08-18?
No · entry 83% · closed Aug 18, 2026
−$1,590
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.

Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31?
No · entry 93%, now 93% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$7,313
−$24 P&L

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?
No · entry 94%, now >99% · ended Nov 1, 2026
$4,995
+$295 P&L

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
No · entry 96%, now 98% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,328
+$81 P&L

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
Yes · entry 94%, now 95% · ends Oct 28, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,795
+$59 P&L

Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
No · entry 90%, now >99% · ended Oct 20, 2026
$3,451
+$327 P&L

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?
No · entry 95%, now 98% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,646
+$99 P&L

Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?
Yes · entry 99%, now 99% · ended Oct 20, 2026
$2,541
−$6 P&L

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
No · entry 77%, now 84% · ends Apr 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,878
+$158 P&L

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
No · entry 92%, now 92% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,859
+$9 P&L

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
No · entry 95%, now 96% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,594
+$10 P&L

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Yes · entry 94%, now 93% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,393
−$18 P&L

Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Yes · entry 84%, now 76% · ends Dec 19, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,234
−$124 P&L

Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $4M and $5M?
No · entry 99%, now >99% · ends Oct 25, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,141
+$7 P&L

Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $5M and $6M?
No · entry 99%, now >99% · ends Oct 25, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$897
+$6 P&L

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?
No · entry 97%, now 94% · ended Sep 14, 2026
$816
−$20 P&L
Recent trades

Bought No at 94%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?

Bought Netherlands at 88%
Cricket World Cup League 2: UAE vs Netherlands

Bought Netherlands at 88%
Cricket World Cup League 2: UAE vs Netherlands

Bought Gambia at 94%
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Gambia vs Lesotho

Bought Gambia at 94%
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Gambia vs Lesotho

Bought Gambia at 94%
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Gambia vs Lesotho

Bought Uganda at 86%
ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Nigeria vs Uganda

Sold No at 95%
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?

Bought India Women at 99%
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women

Bought India Women at 99%
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women

Bought India Women at 99%
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women

Bought India Women at 99%
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women

Bought India Women at 99%
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women

Bought India Women at 99%
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women

Bought India Women at 99%
Zimbabwe Women Tour of India ODIs: India Women vs Zimbabwe Women
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
More to explore: full leaderboard, live whale trades, events with live odds and how to start.