probability has made $142K in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #1,424 all time by profit, with 14M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$142K
- All-time volume (shares)
- 14M
- Portfolio value
- $112K
- Profit this month
- +$15K
- Win rate (last 199 closed)
- 23%
How probability has traded
Across the 199 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 46 (23%) ended in profit and 153 in a loss, for −$1,044 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 20%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $48K together, the biggest is “Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?” (Yes) at 17% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Lanlana Tararudee
Lanlana Tararudee · entry 1% · closed Jul 23, 2026
+$22K
Will Modena FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?
Yes · entry 65% · closed Aug 8, 2026
+$19K
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?
Yes · entry 9% · closed May 15, 2026
+$17K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes · entry 14% · closed Jul 20, 2026
+$17K
Will Runcorn Linnets FC vs. Buxton FC end in a draw?
No · entry 39% · closed Oct 12, 2025
+$14K
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
Yes · entry 10% · closed Nov 9, 2025
+$14K
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes · entry 4% · closed Jul 20, 2026
+$12K
Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 1%?
Yes · entry 8% · closed Aug 29, 2026
+$9,857
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
Yes · entry 38% · closed Feb 9, 2026
+$9,005
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?
No · entry 1% · closed Jul 1, 2026
+$8,437
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Modena FC win on 2026-08-08?
No · entry >99% · closed Aug 8, 2026
−$9,340
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-08-08?
No · entry >99% · closed Aug 8, 2026
−$9,311
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
Yes · entry 92% · closed Jul 2, 2026
−$8,697
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes · entry 21% · closed Jul 15, 2026
−$5,410
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?
No · entry 95% · closed Oct 19, 2026
−$4,946
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
No · entry 90% · closed May 24, 2026
−$4,925
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
No · entry 96% · closed Feb 9, 2026
−$4,383
T20 Lanka Premier League: Kandy Royals vs Galle Gallants
Galle Gallants · entry 50% · closed Jul 29, 2026
−$4,291
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
No · entry 78% · closed May 30, 2026
−$3,628
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Yes · entry 81% · closed Sep 24, 2026
−$3,392
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Yes · entry 16%, now 75% · ended Sep 14, 2026
$8,397
+$6,626 P&L
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 16%, now 17% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,688
+$348 P&L
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes · entry 96%, now >99% · ends Dec 6, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$6,102
+$234 P&L
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No · entry 31%, now 29% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$4,300
−$301 P&L
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes · entry 32%, now 11% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$3,069
−$5,560 P&L
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
No · entry 94%, now 96% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,529
+$50 P&L
Will the match end in a draw?
No · entry 88%, now 88% · ends Nov 3, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,382
+$1 P&L
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes · entry 95%, now 97% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,083
+$31 P&L
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes · entry 86%, now 35% · ends Oct 26, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,994
−$2,831 P&L
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Yes · entry 4%, now 18% · ended Sep 14, 2026
$1,929
+$1,525 P&L
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?
No · entry 97%, now 98% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,892
+$21 P&L
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?
No · entry 96%, now 97% · ends Apr 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,758
+$13 P&L
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
No · entry 37%, now 38% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,679
+$36 P&L
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Yes · entry 95%, now 98% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,634
+$48 P&L
Will Seamus Power win the 2026 Butterfield Bermuda Championship?
No · entry 66%, now 52% · ends Oct 25, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,579
−$432 P&L
Recent trades
Bought Yes at 5%
Will Ivica Dačić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Bought Yes at 5%
Will Ivica Dačić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Bought Ireland at 58%
Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought No at 16%
Will Liberal–National win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?
Bought Yes at 31%
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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