Thankful-Lookout
0x39fd…7d31 · Joined November 18, 2025
Thankful-Lookout has made $2,282 in realized profit on Polymarket and ranks #47,520 all time by profit, with 209K shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 25, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- +$2,282
- All-time volume (shares)
- 209K
- Portfolio value
- $8,294
- Profit this month
- +$1,391
- Win rate (last 197 closed)
- 82%
How Thankful-Lookout has traded
Across the 197 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 161 (82%) ended in profit and 36 in a loss, for +$4,694 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 76%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 138 of the 197 are about politics and elections, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $8,138 together, the biggest is “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more?” (Yes) at 30% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will FedEx say "Truck" during earnings call?
Yes · entry 90% · closed Dec 20, 2025
+$3,372
Will Trump say "Gobble" or "Waddle" 10+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?
Yes · entry 33% · closed Nov 25, 2025
+$1,402
Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" at Rocky Mount events on Friday?
No · entry 7% · closed Dec 20, 2025
+$1,225
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during call with Service Members on November 27?
Yes · entry 64% · closed Nov 28, 2025
+$630
Will Powell say "Pause" during December press conference?
No · entry 49% · closed Dec 10, 2025
+$602
Will Trump say "Thank" or "Thanks" 20+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?
Yes · entry 80% · closed Nov 25, 2025
+$469
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the medal presentation on December 15?
No · entry 39% · closed Dec 15, 2025
+$469
Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8?
No · entry 76% · closed Dec 9, 2025
+$467
Will Dell say "Confidence" during earnings call?
No · entry 34% · closed Nov 26, 2025
+$413
Will Trump say "Thanksgiving" 5+ times during call with Service Members on November 27?
Yes · entry 79% · closed Nov 28, 2025
+$386
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will Leavitt say "West Virginia" during the next White House press briefing?
Yes · entry 95% · closed Dec 11, 2025
−$3,605
Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?
Yes · entry 99% · closed Mar 25, 2026
−$526
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during the announcement on December 19?
Yes · entry 58% · closed Dec 20, 2025
−$359
Will Leavitt say "President" 69+ times during the next White House press briefing?
No · entry 94% · closed Jan 17, 2026
−$308
Will Leavitt say "President" 66+ times during the next White House press briefing?
No · entry 13% · closed Dec 12, 2025
−$226
Will Snowflake say "Iceberg" during earnings call?
Yes · entry 80% · closed Dec 3, 2025
−$190
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?
No · entry 54% · closed Dec 12, 2025
−$180
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?
No · entry 59% · closed Nov 21, 2025
−$176
Will Trump say "Stock market" during call with Service Members on November 27?
No · entry 55% · closed Nov 28, 2025
−$151
Will Leavitt say "Bill" or "Clinton" during the next White House press briefing?
No · entry 6% · closed Dec 11, 2025
−$147
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more?
Yes · entry 61%, now 95% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$2,409
+$857 P&L
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
Yes · entry 18%, now 25% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$1,337
+$395 P&L
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
No · entry 77%, now >99% · ended Oct 20, 2026
$910
+$208 P&L
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Yes · entry 31%, now 25% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$686
−$194 P&L
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Yes · entry 72%, now 78% · ends Oct 27, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$543
+$37 P&L
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
No · entry 29%, now 24% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$482
−$101 P&L
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-05 House Election?
Yes · entry 86%, now 91% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$363
+$20 P&L
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
No · entry 27%, now 25% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$254
−$26 P&L
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
Yes · entry 90%, now 92% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$248
+$5 P&L
Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
No · entry 39%, now 42% · ends Jul 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$176
+$10 P&L
Will "The Black Ball" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes · entry 86%, now 96% · ends Mar 15, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$163
+$16 P&L
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
No · entry 97%, now >99% · ends Oct 25, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$160
+$4 P&L
Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes · entry 61%, now 74% · ends Mar 14, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$147
+$25 P&L
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?
Yes · entry 67%, now 99% · ended Oct 20, 2026
$146
+$47 P&L
Will David Jolly underperform Kamala in Florida?
No · entry 78%, now 80% · ends Nov 3, 2026
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$115
+$2 P&L
Recent trades
Bought No at 97%
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Bought No at 97%
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Bought Yes at 81%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 81%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?
Bought No at 76%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
Bought No at 82%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
Sold No at 75%
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Bought No at 70%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
Bought Yes at 48%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?
Sold Yes at 94%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more?
Bought Yes at 70%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?
Bought Yes at 87%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 74%
Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
Bought Yes at 89%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?
Bought Yes at 89%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kaitlan Collins by October 31, 2026?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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