nefariouskermit
0x2a6f…2351 · Joined August 9, 2026
nefariouskermit is down $4,857 in realized results on Polymarket, with 350K shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 27, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- −$4,857
- All-time volume (shares)
- 350K
- Portfolio value
- $719
- Profit this month
- −$3,244
- Win rate (last 136 closed)
- 69%
How nefariouskermit has traded
Across the 136 most recently closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 94 (69%) ended in profit and 42 in a loss, for −$471 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 60%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. 89 of the 136 are about crypto, judging by keywords in the market titles. Of the 15 largest open positions listed below, worth $201 together, the biggest is “Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 in October?” (No) at 11% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Yes · entry 14% · closed Oct 26, 2026
+$658
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Yes · entry 27% · closed Oct 27, 2026
+$459
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Up · entry 67% · closed Sep 30, 2026
+$115
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
Down · entry 57% · closed Sep 26, 2026
+$108
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Up · entry 66% · closed Sep 30, 2026
+$86
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
Down · entry 63% · closed Sep 30, 2026
+$86
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
Down · entry 66% · closed Sep 26, 2026
+$86
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Down · entry 76% · closed Sep 30, 2026
+$76
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?
Yes · entry 39% · closed Oct 27, 2026
+$76
Xorazm Fk Urganch leading at halftime?
No · entry 6% · closed Oct 26, 2026
+$75
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
No · entry 90% · closed Oct 26, 2026
−$729
Will the Republican Party win the OH-15 House seat?
No · entry 69% · closed Oct 22, 2026
−$564
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
No · entry 75% · closed Oct 27, 2026
−$501
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Up · entry 92% · closed Sep 30, 2026
−$335
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?
No · entry 64% · closed Oct 27, 2026
−$334
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?
No · entry 14% · closed Oct 27, 2026
−$313
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000?
No · entry 85% · closed Oct 18, 2026
−$233
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes · entry 55% · closed Oct 24, 2026
−$217
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be less than 1,200,000?
Yes · entry 21% · closed Oct 18, 2026
−$197
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 0%-5%?
Yes · entry 37% · closed Oct 23, 2026
−$176
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 in October?
No · entry 69%, now 80% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in October?
No · entry 86%, now 91% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?
No · entry 84%, now 80% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 21?
Yes · entry 92%, now 86% · ended Oct 22, 2026
$17
−$1 P&L
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?
No · entry 91%, now 84% · ends Nov 4, 2026
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of October 26 2026?
No · entry 48%, now 68% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $502.50 Week of October 26 2026?
No · entry 57%, now 68% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of October 26 2026?
No · entry 59%, now 70% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of October 26 2026?
No · entry 71%, now 80% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $177.50 Week of October 26 2026?
No · entry 65%, now 74% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $495 Week of October 26 2026?
No · entry 69%, now 80% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $140 in October?
No · entry 80%, now 81% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 26 2026?
No · entry 90%, now 89% · ends Oct 30, 2026
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $290 in October?
No · entry 87%, now 85% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in October?
No · entry 90%, now 84% · ends Nov 1, 2026
Recent trades
Bought Down at 32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Bought Down at 31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
Bought Down at 33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
Bought Down at 25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Sold No at 72%
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Bought Yes at 27%
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Bought No at 77%
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Bought No at 75%
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Bought No at 75%
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Bought Up at 28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
Bought Down at 22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
Bought Down at 25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
Bought Down at 81%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7AM ET
Bought Down at 82%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7AM ET
Sold No at 49%
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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