BlackswanDefi
0x28c3…da06 · Joined July 4, 2025
BlackswanDefi is down $6,222 in realized results on Polymarket, with 5.3M shares traded.
Latest trade seen: Oct 24, 2026.
- All-time realized profit
- −$6,222
- All-time volume (shares)
- 5.3M
- Portfolio value
- $1,094
- Profit this month
- +$76
- Win rate (last 165 closed)
- 53%
How BlackswanDefi has traded
Across all 165 closed positions with a profit or loss Polymarket lists for this wallet, 87 (53%) ended in profit and 78 in a loss, for −$3,905 in realized profit and loss on those positions. The simple average entry price on them was 67%; below 50% means that, on average, the trader bought outcomes the market rated less likely than not. Of the 10 largest open positions listed below, worth $1,092 together, the biggest is “Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?” (Yes) at 44% of that value.
Computed by WhaleSays from Polymarket's public position data. It describes the past and is not a forecast.
Biggest wins
Closed positions with the highest realized profit.
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?
No · entry 43% · closed Nov 23, 2025
+$2,590
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
No · entry 13% · closed Nov 23, 2025
+$2,054
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Yes · entry 61% · closed Dec 6, 2025
+$1,894
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
No · entry 23% · closed Oct 30, 2025
+$1,267
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
No · entry 50% · closed Mar 31, 2026
+$1,224
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Yes · entry 88% · closed Oct 30, 2025
+$1,170
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Yes · entry 57% · closed Apr 8, 2026
+$860
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
No · entry 20% · closed Jul 20, 2026
+$835
Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO?
Yes · entry 38% · closed Oct 22, 2025
+$805
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?
No · entry 94% · closed Mar 25, 2026
+$754
Biggest losses
Closed positions with the largest realized loss.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Yes · entry 36% · closed May 8, 2026
−$4,265
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Yes · entry 54% · closed Dec 31, 2025
−$1,523
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Yes · entry 26% · closed Dec 30, 2025
−$1,191
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
No · entry 84% · closed May 5, 2026
−$1,151
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
No · entry 86% · closed Mar 4, 2026
−$988
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
No · entry 37% · closed Jan 3, 2026
−$983
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes · entry 16% · closed Jul 1, 2026
−$919
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Yes · entry 11% · closed Oct 14, 2026
−$914
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?
Yes · entry 49% · closed Mar 22, 2026
−$902
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
No · entry 46% · closed Dec 15, 2025
−$900
Open positions
The largest current holdings by value, with the average entry price against today's price.
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Yes · entry 34%, now 32% · ends Jan 1, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$480
−$38 P&L
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 1%, now 0.5% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$203
−$297 P&L
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 2%, now 2% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$155
−$55 P&L
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 0.8%, now 0.1% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$75
−$325 P&L
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 1%, now 0.3% · ends Nov 8, 2028
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$75
−$225 P&L
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
Yes · entry 23%, now 5% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Trade this on Polymarket (affiliate link)$49
−$203 P&L
SBF released from custody in 2026?
No · entry 88%, now 98% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes · entry 0.7%, now <0.1% · ended Nov 8, 2028
$21
−$279 P&L
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
No · entry 89%, now 98% · ends Jan 1, 2027
China coup attempt before 2027?
Yes · entry 3%, now 3% · ends Jan 1, 2027
Recent trades
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 0.9%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Sold No at 97%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 9%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Sold Yes at 9%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 32%
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Sold Yes at 9%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Everything on this page comes from public Polymarket and on-chain data. WhaleSays is independent and is not affiliated with this trader. Past results do not predict future ones. To ask for a profile to be removed, contact us through the about page.
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